Aleksandar Zaklan

About

Work in progress

1. Working paperMay 2026

   Cost Pass-Through in European Power Generation

   with Jan Abrell

   Abstract

   We analyze the extent to which marginal producers in four European day-ahead electricity markets pass through short-run marginal cost, and its components fuel and carbon cost, to wholesale electricity prices. Parametric estimates show that pass-through is complete in France and Germany, and incomplete in the Iberian and Dutch markets, mainly driven by fuel cost. For carbon cost, pass-through is more heterogeneous, with the evidence suggesting over-shifting in Germany and the Netherlands. Semi-parametric estimates show that pass-through increases with demand. In sum, we show that despite being located in interconnected power markets, electricity consumers receive different fuel and carbon price signals.

2. In progress

   Carbon Cost Pass-Through in European Aviation

   with Xavier Fageda, Adrián Santonja and Jordi Teixidó

3. In progress

   Congestion Pricing and Well-Being

   with Philipp Lorscheider

4. Working paper (old)

   The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases on European Green Bonds

   with Franziska Bremus, Fangfang Qiu and Franziska Schütze

Peer-reviewed

1. 2025ERE

   Effectiveness and Heterogeneous Effects of Purchase Grants for Electric Vehicles: Evidence from Germany

   with Peter Haan and Adrián Santonja

   Environmental and Resource Economics 88, 185–223.

   Abstract

   We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015–2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level CO2 standards using neighboring countries as a control group. We find that 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced. The program had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. We estimate implied abatement costs of 870 euro per ton of CO2 for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs, suggesting that policy makers should re-balance support schemes away from PHEVs.

2. 2023JPubE

   The Air Quality and Well-Being Effects of Low Emission Zones

   with Luis Sarmiento and Nicole Wägner

   Journal of Public Economics 227, 105014.

   Abstract

   This study provides the first evidence of the subjective well-being impacts of low emission zones (LEZs) while also undertaking a comprehensive analysis of their air quality effects. We identify causal impacts by exploiting the zones’ introduction date with difference-in-differences designs robust to staggered implementations and time-varying treatment effects. Results show air quality improvements through reductions in traffic-related pollutants despite ground-level ozone increases and harmful spatial pollution spillovers. We further find that the zones cause transitory yet long-lasting reductions in individuals’ life satisfaction despite health benefits, suggesting that the subjective well-being effects of restricting mobility potentially outweigh those of improved health.

3. 2023AEJ: Policy

   Coase and Cap-and-Trade: Evidence on the Independence Property from the European Carbon Market

   American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 15(2), 526–558.

   Abstract

   I examine the Coasean independence property in a large multinational cap-and-trade scheme for greenhouse gas emissions, the EU Emissions Trading System. I analyze whether emissions of power producers are independent from allowance allocations by leveraging a change in allocation policy for a difference-in-difference strategy. The evidence suggests that the independence property holds overall and for larger emitters and that firms respond to the loss in allocation by increasing allowance purchases. Suggestive evidence for small emitters indicates that trading costs or behavioral bias distorts their emission decisions. However, their small emission share leaves the independence property intact at the sector level.

4. 2021Rev. Account. Stud.

   The Impact of Carbon Disclosure Mandates on Emissions and Financial Operating Performance

   with Benedikt Downar, Jürgen Ernstberger, Stefan Reichelstein and Sebastian Schwenen

   Review of Accounting Studies 26, 1137–1175.

   Abstract

   We examine the impact of a disclosure mandate for greenhouse gas emissions on firms’ subsequent emission levels and financial operating performance. For UK-incorporated listed firms a carbon disclosure mandate was adopted in 2013. Our difference-in-differences design shows that firms affected by the mandate reduced their emissions by about 8% relative to a control group of European firms. At the same time, our tests indicate that the treated firms experienced no significant changes in their gross margins. Taken together, our findings indicate that the reporting mandate had a real effect on the variable to be disclosed without adversely affecting the financial operating performance of the treated firms.

5. 2021Climate Policy

   The EU ETS to 2030 and Beyond: Adjusting the Cap in Light of the 1.5C Target and Current Energy Policies

   with Jakob Wachsmuth and Vicki Duscha

   Climate Policy 21(6), 778–791.

   Abstract

   The Paris Agreement calls on countries to pursue efforts to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. We derive a 2016–2050 emission budget for the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) based on cost-effectiveness criteria aimed at achieving the 1.5°C target with a 50%–66% probability, and translate it into a cap reduction path. We show that, under current ETS parameters, the vast majority of this budget will be consumed by 2030. Meeting the budget under current 2030 EU ETS parameters would require drastic – and probably unrealistic – additional efforts after 2030. We derive a cost-effective scenario delivering a smoother and more credible emission pathway. We show that recently increased EU targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, along with national coal phase-out policies up to 2030 provide cap adjustment potential. If the cap is adjusted to reflect these policies and if phased-out coal capacities are fully substituted through renewable energy, emissions in ETS sectors could decline by 57% through to 2030. This approximates our cost-effective scenario and translates into a linear reduction factor (LRF) for the cap of 3.6% for the period 2021–2030.

6. 2019JEEM

   Does the EU ETS Cause Carbon Leakage in European Manufacturing?

   with Helene Naegele

   Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 93, 125–147.

   Abstract

   Carbon leakage is of interest in both academic and policy debates about the effectiveness of unilateral climate policy, especially in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) affects many traded sectors. We review how the literature identifies leakage and the pollution haven effect. We then evaluate whether EU ETS emission costs caused carbon leakage in European manufacturing, using trade flows in embodied carbon and value from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We find no evidence that the EU ETS caused carbon leakage.

7. 2016REEP

   The EU ETS: Ten Years and Counting

   with Denny Ellerman and Claudio Marcantonini

   Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 10(1), 89–107.

   Abstract

   This article provides an introduction to the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS). First we describe the legislative development of the EU ETS, its evolution from free allocation to auctioning and centralized allocation rules, its relationship to the Kyoto Protocol and other trading systems, and its relationship to other EU climate and energy policies. This is followed by an assessment of the performance of the EU ETS, which focuses in particular on emissions, allowance prices, and the use of offsets. We conclude with a discussion of the current debate about the future of the EU ETS and proposals for changes to both the EU ETS and the climate policy environment in which it operates.

8. 2016Energy Econ.

   Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Energy Commodity Prices

   with Jan Abrell and Anne Neumann

   Energy Economics 59, 96–103.

   Abstract

   Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s.

9. 2012Energy Econ.

   The Globalization of Steam Coal Markets and the Role of Logistics: An Empirical Analysis

   with Astrid Cullman, Anne Neumann and Christian von Hirschhausen

   Energy Economics 34(1), 105–116.

   Abstract

   In this paper, we provide a comprehensive multivariate cointegration analysis of three parts of the steam coal value chain — export, transport and import prices. The analysis is based on a rich dataset of international coal prices; in particular, we combine data on steam coal prices with freight rates, covering the period December 2001 until August 2009 at weekly frequency. We then test whether the demand and supply side components of steam coal trade are consistently integrated with one another. In addition, export and import prices as well as freight rates for individual trading routes, across regions and globally are combined. We find evidence of significant yet incomplete integration. We also find heterogeneous short-term dynamics of individual markets. Furthermore, we examine whether logistics enter coal price dynamics through transportation costs, which are mainly determined by oil prices. Our results suggest that this is generally not the case.

10. 2011Rev. Finance

    The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization

    with André Faria and Paolo Mauro

    Review of Finance 15(1), 207–243.

    Abstract

    What determines the yields at which international investors are willing to lend to emerging market countries, and the amounts of such lending? We analyze the motivation underlying investors’ choices in allocating their holdings across countries, through regressions for both prices (bond yields) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated during two waves of financial globalization (1870–1913 and today). The results suggest that, throughout the past one and a half centuries, a combination of human capital (including informal human capital) and institutional quality has been a key determinant of emerging market countries’ ability to attract international investors.

Policy papers

1. 2022DIW Wochenb.

   Kaufprämien für Elektro-Pkw verändern Zusammensetzung des deutschen Automarkts with Peter Haan and Adrián Santonja di Fonzo. DIW Wochenbericht 89(15–16), 231–238.

2. 2022UBA Paper

   Strukturelle Weiterentwicklung des EU-ETS nach 2020 — Abschlussbericht with Verena Graichen, Johanna Cludius, Vicki Duscha, Jakob Graichen, Markus Haller, Hauke Hermann, Friedhelm Keimeyer, Sascha Lehmann, Charlotte Loreck and Jakob Wachsmuth. German Environmental Agency Climate Change 18/2022.

3. 2022DIW Wochenb.

   Umweltzonen verbessern Luftqualität und Gesundheit, verringern aber temporär Lebenszufriedenheit with Luis Sarmiento and Nicole Wägner. DIW Wochenbericht 89(13), 203–211.

4. 2021UBA Paper

   Structural Supply Side Management in EU ETS: Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve with Jakob Graichen, Verena Graichen, Hauke Hermann and Johanna Cludius. German Environmental Agency Climate Change 39/2021.

5. 2021DIW Wochenb.

   EZB-Politik erleichtert Unternehmen Finanzierung am Markt grüner Anleihen with Franziska Bremus and Franziska Schütze. DIW Wochenbericht 88(22), 367–375.

6. 2020DIW Weekly Rep.

   EU ETS Cap Must and Can Be Reduced More Quickly with Vicki Duscha, Claudia Gibis, Jakob Wachsmuth, Jan Weiß and Claudia Kemfert. DIW Weekly Report 10(26–27), 293–300.

7. 2020UBA Paper

   EU ETS up to 2030: Adjusting the Cap in Light of the IPCC 1.5C Special Report and the Paris Agreement with Jakob Wachsmuth and Vicki Duscha. German Environmental Agency Climate Change 07/2020.

8. 2019DIW Vjh.

   Green Finance: The Macro Perspective — Editorial with Claudia Kemfert, Dorothea Schäfer and Willi Semmler. Vierteljahreshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 88(2), 5–9.

9. 2019DIW Pol. Komp.

   CO2-Bepreisung im Wärme- und Verkehrssektor: Diskussion von Wirkungen und alternativen Entlastungsoptionen with Stefan Bach, Niklas Isaak, Claudia Kemfert, Uwe Kunert, Wolf-Peter Schill, Sophie Schmalz and Nicole Wägner. DIW Politikberatung Kompakt 140/2019.

10. 2019UBA Paper

    Evaluierung und Weiterentwicklung des EU-Emissionshandels aus ökonomischer Perspektive für die Zeit nach 2020 (EU-ETS-7) with Verena Graichen, Hannah Förster, Jakob Graichen, Sean Healy, Julia Repenning, Katja Schumacher, Vicki Duscha, Nele Friedrichsen, Sascha Lehmann, Gizem Erdogmus, Ines Haug, Solbin Kim and Jochen Diekmann. Umweltbundesamt Climate Change 29/2019.

11. 2019DIW Wochenber.

    Umweltwirkungen der Ökosteuer begrenzt, CO2-Bepreisung der nächste Schritt with Claudia Kemfert, Wolf-Peter Schill and Nicole Wägner. DIW Wochenbericht 86(13), 215–221.

12. 2018DIW Weekly Rep.

    Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighs on Trade and Investment with Claus Michelsen, Dawud Ansari, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer and Malte Rieth. DIW Weekly Report 8(50/51/52), 506–508.

13. 2018DIW Wochenber.

    Rohölmarkt: Iran-Sanktionen dürften zu moderatem Preisanstieg führen with Dawud Ansari and Claudia Kemfert. DIW Wochenbericht 85(49), 1053–1059.

14. 2018DIW Roundup

    Linking Cap-and-Trade Systems with Katharina Erdmann. DIW Roundup 123.

15. 2017DIW Econ. Bull.

    Crude Oil: Market Trends and Simulations Point toward Stable Equilibrium with Dawud Ansari and Claudia Kemfert. DIW Economic Bulletin 7(51–52), 567–573.

16. 2016DIW Wochenber.

    Rohölmarkt: US-amerikanisches Schieferöl schwächt Marktmacht der OPEC with Claudia Kemfert. DIW Wochenbericht 83(19), 429–433.

17. 2016DIW Econ. Bull.

    EU Emissions Trading: Distinctive Behavior of Small Companies with Helene Naegele. DIW Economic Bulletin 6(9–10), 117–124.

18. 2015DIW Roundup

    Europe's Mechanism for Countering the Risk of Carbon Leakage with Bente Bauer. DIW Roundup 72.

19. 2015GD

    Kräftiger Aufschwung dank günstigem Öl und schwachem Euro part of consortium led by DIW, ifo, IWH and RWI. Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2015.

20. 2015DIW Wochenber.

    Schieferöl sorgt für niedrige Preise im Prognosezeitraum with DIW's Forecasting and Economic Policy Department. DIW Wochenbericht 82(11), 219–247.

21. 2013DIW Wochenber.

    WTI schert aus: Brent im Moment alleiniger globaler Benchmarkpreis für Rohöl with DIW's Forecasting and Economic Policy Department. DIW Wochenbericht 80(1–2), 3–48.

22. 2012UBA Paper

    Price Determinants of the European Carbon Market and Interactions with Energy Markets with Johanna Cludius, Jochen Diekmann, Felix Matthes, Joachim Schleich and Katja Schumacher. Umweltbundesamt Climate Change 11/2012.

23. 2011DIW Wochenber.

    Entwicklung der Erdölmärkte: Reservekapazität im Nahen Osten wirkt derzeit stabilisierend with Kerstin Bernoth, Daniel Huppmann, Claudia Kemfert and Christian von Hirschhausen. DIW Wochenbericht 78(21), 3–9.

24. 2011DIW Wochenber.

    Welt-Metallmärkte: Steigende Preise bei hoher Marktkonzentration with Anne Neumann and Christian von Hirschhausen. DIW Wochenbericht 78(19), 11–14.